Nigerian Youths For Atiku

NYFA LEADERS' ECONOMIC DIGEST

Episode 9

​

​By NYFA Editors​

​

​​

​

 

​​​​​​
​​

​

 

​

​

The Unbridled Surge: The Palm Oil's Plight In A Tale of Two Eras

 

In the annals of Nigerian economic history, few commodities have borne witness to the vicissitudes of policy and governance as starkly as palm oil. Once a staple of stability and affordability, palm oil prices have skyrocketed in recent years, leaving consumers grappling with the consequences of economic mismanagement. A comparative analysis of palm oil prices during the vice presidency of Atiku Abubakar (1999-2007) and the presidency of Bola Tinubu (2023-present) reveals a remarkable disparity between the two eras.

​

Intra-Era Comparison: Atiku's Era (1999-2007)

- Price range for 25 litres: ₦1,875 - ₦2,375
- Percentage increase: 26.67% (₦500 increase)

​

Intra-Era Comparison: Tinubu's Era (2023-2025)

- 2023 price for 25 litres: ₦20,000
- 2025 price for 25 litres: ₦55,000
- Percentage increase: 175% (₦35,000 increase)

​

Inter-Era Comparison

- Atiku's era: 26.67% increase over 8 years
- Tinubu's era (projected 4-year forecast):
    - Assuming a constant rate of increase, the price would rise to approximately ₦110,000 in 4 years.
    - Percentage increase: 100% (₦55,000 to ₦110,000)

- Tinubu's era (projected 8-year forecast):
    - Assuming a constant rate of increase, the price would rise to approximately ₦220,000 in 8 years.
    - Percentage increase: 300% (₦55,000 to ₦220,000)

​

Comparative Price Index

The comparative price index using the average price of Atiku's era (₦2,125) as the base.

- Atiku's Era (1999-2007): 100% (base index, ₦2,125)
- Tinubu's Era (2023-2025):
    - Lower end comparison: 2,932.8% (index increase, ₦55,000 / ₦1,875)
    - Upper end comparison: 2,315.8% (index increase, ₦55,000 / ₦2,375)

​

Analysis

​

The analysis reveals a stark contrast between the two eras. Atiku's era was characterised by a relatively stable and low price range for palm oil, with a moderate percentage increase over 8 years. In contrast, Tinubu's era has witnessed a sharp increase in prices, with a significant percentage increase in just 2 years. If this trend continues, the projected 4-year and 8-year forecasts paint a grim picture for consumers.

​

Bad Governance and Leadership Incompetence

​

The current state of affairs can be attributed to bad governance and leadership incompetence, particularly with regards to borrowing, corruption, and lack of focus. The removal of fuel subsidies and drastic changes in fiscal and monetary policies have contributed to the economic instability and rising prices.

​

Conclusion

​

In sum, the era of Atiku was marked by relative stability and low prices, whereas the current era of President Tinubu is characterised by sharp price increases and economic uncertainty. The projected forecasts for the next 4 and 8 years are alarming, highlighting the need for effective governance and leadership to mitigate the effects of inflation and ensure economic stability.