NYFA LEADERS' ECONOMIC DIGEST Episode 15

NYFA LEADERS' ECONOMIC DIGEST

Episode 15

By NYFA Editors

A TALE OF TWO NIGERIAS: ATIKU'S FRUGAL ERA TO TINUBU'S PETROL BOMB.

In the realm of economic woes, Nigeria's fuel price hike has precipitated an existential crisis, with far-reaching implications for the nation's populace. According to the World Bank, Nigeria's economy is expected to experience significant challenges, including high inflation and low fiscal revenues, which hinder economic growth. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also acknowledged the country's struggles, emphasising the need for bold reforms to restore macroeconomic stability and promote growth.

The halcyon days of Atiku Abubakar's vice presidency (1999-2007), when a litre of petrol retailed for a paltry ₦30 to ₦70, seem like a distant memory, eclipsed by the current administration's propensity for fiscal recklessness. Bola Tinubu's tenure has witnessed a precipitous spike in fuel prices, with a litre costing a staggering ₦1,027 as of August 2025.

The confluence of bad governance, incompetent leadership, and corruption has created a perfect storm that has ravaged the Nigerian economy. The fuel price hike is merely a symptom of a more profound malaise that afflicts the nation, necessitating a critical examination of the underlying structural issues that have precipitated this crisis.

Comparative Percentage Differences: A Metric of Fiscal Fecklessness

During Atiku's vice presidency (1999-2007), the price of petrol ranged from ₦30 to ₦70 per litre. Fast-forward to Tinubu's administration (2023-present), the price has skyrocketed to ₦1,027 per litre as of August 2025. The comparative percentage differences between the two eras are stark and telling. Price index using the formula: (Current Price / Base Price) x 100 indicates:

Lower Price Index (Atiku's Era): (₦30 / ₦30) x 100 = 100
Upper Price Index (Atiku's Era): (₦70 / ₦30) x 100 = 233.33 over eight years.

Lower Price Index (Tinubu's Era): (₦238 / ₦238) x 100 = 100 (using 2023 price as base)
Upper Price Index (Tinubu's Era): (₦1,027 / ₦238) x 100 = 431.51 in two years alone.

Inter and Intra Price Increase Index of The Two Administrations

The inter price increase index, which measures the percentage change between Atiku's and Tinubu's eras, reveals a staggering increase of 1367.14% (₦1,027 - ₦70) / ₦70) x 100. The intra price increase index, which measures the percentage change within Tinubu's era, reveals an increase of 331.51% (₦1,027 - ₦238) / ₦238) x 100 in just two years alone.

Liberal Projected Fuel Prices: A Prognosis of Fiscal Doom

Assuming a similar rate of increase, fuel prices for 2026 and 2027 results are alarming:

- 2026: ₦1,027 x (1 + 3.3151) = ₦1,427.19 (approximately)
- 2027: ₦1,427.19 x (1 + 3.3151) = ₦1,927.41 (approximately)

Liberal Projected Fuel Prices if Tinubu Continues for 2 Terms (2027-2031)

Using the same rate of increase, fuel prices for the next four years indicate:

- 2028: ₦1,927.41 x (1 + 3.3151) = ₦2,593.59
- 2029: ₦2,593.59 x (1 + 3.3151) = ₦3,483.11
- 2030: ₦3,483.11 x (1 + 3.3151) = ₦4,669.39
- 2031: ₦4,669.39 x (1 + 3.3151) = ₦6,253.91

Conclusion: A Nation in Crisis

The stark contrast between the frugal era of 1999-2007, when fuel prices ranged from ₦30 to ₦70, and the current administration's petrol bomb, with prices skyrocketing to ₦1,027, is a testament to the devastating impact of bad governance, incompetent leadership, and corruption on Nigeria's economy. The World Bank and IMF warn against significant challenges, including high inflation and low fiscal revenues, which hinder economic growth. The alarming percentage increases in fuel prices, with a 1367.14% inter price increase index and a 331.51% intra price increase index, underscore the urgent need for bold reforms to restore macroeconomic stability and promote growth. Unless the government takes drastic measures to address the root causes of the problem, the future looks bleak. Nigerians can only hope that their leaders will wake up from their slumber and take action to mitigate the suffering that has been unleashed upon them.

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