NYFA LEADERS' ECONOMIC DIGEST Episode 6

NYFA LEADERS' ECONOMIC DIGEST

Episode 6

By NYFA Editors

A Tale of Two Eras - Atiku's Affordability vs. Tinubu's Economic Despair: The Shocking Price of Beans

The astronomical rise in bean prices in Nigeria serves as a stark indicator of the country's economic woes, highlighting the vast disparity between the economic policies of Atiku Abubakar's vice presidency (1999-2007) and the current administration under President Tinubu (2023-till date). This analysis juxtaposes the economic differences between these two distinct periods, with a particular focus on bean prices.

Atiku Abubakar's Era (1999-2007)
During Atiku's tenure as Vice President, Nigeria's economy was marked by relative stability, with a stable exchange rate and moderate inflation rates contributing to a favourable economic climate. The price of beans during this period reflected the economic stability, with a bag costing between ₦2,900 (in 1999) and ₦3,250 (in 2007), an increase of approximately 12% over the 8-year period.

Price Increase Breakdown (Atiku's Era)
The percentage increase in bean prices during Atiku's era is calculated as follows:

(₦3,250 - ₦2,900) / ₦2,900) x 100% ≈ 12%

From 1999 (₦2,900) to 2007 (₦3,250): approximately 12% increase.

Tinubu's Administration (2023-till date)
In contradistinction, the current administration has been marked by a paradigm shift, characterised by economic instability, soaring inflation rates, and currency fluctuations. The price of beans has skyrocketed to ₦70,000 under President Tinubu's era.

Price Increase Breakdown (Tinubu's Era)

The price of beans in 2023 was ₦26,000, and the current price in 2025 is ₦70,000. To calculate the percentage increase:

(₦70,000 - ₦26,000) / ₦26,000) x 100% ≈ 169%

4-Year and 8-Year Forecast
Assuming the current trend continues, with a 169% increase in bean prices over 2 years, we can project a 4-year and 8-year forecast. To calculate the annual increase rate:

(1 + 1.69)^(1/2) ≈ 1.83 (annual increase rate)

Applying this rate to the current price of ₦70,000:
- Year 3: ₦70,000 x 1.83 ≈ ₦128,100
- Year 4: ₦128,100 x 1.83 ≈ ₦234,423
- Year 8: ₦234,423 x (1.83)^4 ≈ ₦1,433,919

Comparison and Analysis
Intra-Era Comparison:

- Within Atiku's era, the price increase is approximately 12%.
- Within Tinubu's administration, the price increase is approximately 169% over 2 years.

Inter-Era Comparison:

- The price increase from Atiku's era to Tinubu's administration is staggering, with bean prices rising from ₦2,900 to ₦70,000.
- If Tinubu's administration continues with the current trend, the price increase from Atiku's era to Tinubu's 8-year forecast would be approximately 49,443%.

Reasons for Inflation
Several factors have contributed to the rising cost of beans:
- Macroeconomic instability: Elevated inflation rates and currency fluctuations.
- Supply and demand disequilibrium: Reduced bean production and increased demand.
- Elevated transportation costs.
- Governance deficits: Poor governance, corruption, and lack of accountability.

The current economic trajectory is unsustainable, and urgent action is needed to address the root causes of inflation and ensure food affordability for Nigerians.

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