NYFA LEADERS' ECONOMIC DIGEST Episode 5

NYFA LEADERS' ECONOMIC DIGEST

Episode 5

By NYFA Editors

A Tale of Two Eras - Atiku's Affordability vs. Tinubu's Economic Despair: The Onion Price Shock!

The price of onions, a staple ingredient in Nigerian cuisine, serves as a stark indicator of the country's economic trajectory. This analysis juxtaposes the economic differences between two distinct periods: Atiku Abubakar's vice presidency (1999-2007) and the current administration under President Tinubu (2023-till date), with a particular focus on onion prices.

Atiku Abubakar's Era (1999-2007)

During Atiku's tenure as Vice President, the Nigerian economy exhibited a modicum of stability, characterised by a relatively stable exchange rate and moderate inflation. The price of onions, a ubiquitous commodity, reflected this stability, with a bag costing between ₦1,000 (in 1999) and ₦1,350 (in 2007).

Price Increase Breakdown (Atiku's Era)

The percentage increase in onion prices during Atiku's era is calculated as follows:

((₦1,350 - ₦1,000) / ₦1,000) x 100% ≈ 35%

From 1999 (₦1,000) to 2007 (₦1,350): approximately 35% increase.

Inter and Intra Era Comparison (Atiku's Era)

- Intra-Era Comparison: Within Atiku's era, the price increase from 1999 to 2007 is approximately 35%.

Tinubu's Administration (2023-till date)

In contradistinction, the current administration has been marked by a paradigm shift, characterised by economic instability, soaring inflation rates, and currency fluctuations. The price of onions has skyrocketed:
- In 2023, a bag of onions cost approximately ₦40,000.
- As of 2025, the price has escalated to around ₦70,000.

Price Increase Breakdown (Tinubu's Era)

The percentage increase in onion prices during Tinubu's era is calculated as follows:

(₦70,000 - ₦40,000) / ₦40,000) x 100% ≈ 75%

From 2023 (₦40,000) to 2025 (₦70,000): approximately 75% increase.

8-Year Forecast

Assuming the current trend continues, with a 75% increase in onion prices over 2 years, we can project an 8-year forecast. To calculate the annual increase rate with the formula:

(1 + 0.75)^(1/2) ≈ 1.34 (annual increase rate)

Applying this rate to the current price of ₦70,000:
- Year 3: ₦70,000 x 1.34 ≈ ₦93,800
- Year 4: ₦93,800 x 1.34 ≈ ₦125,692
- Year 5: ₦125,692 x 1.34 ≈ ₦168,427
- Year 6: ₦168,427 x 1.34 ≈ ₦225,692
- Year 7: ₦225,692 x 1.34 ≈ ₦302,427
- Year 8: ₦302,427 x 1.34 ≈ ₦405,252

Inter and Intra Era Comparison (Both Eras)

- Inter-Era Comparison: The price increase from Atiku's era (1999-2007) to Tinubu's administration (2023-2031) would be staggering, with onion prices potentially rising from ₦1,000 to ₦405,252.
- Intra-Era Comparison: Within Atiku's era, the price increase is approximately 35%. Within Tinubu's administration, the price increase would be approximately 913% over 8 years.

Factors Contributing to the Price Increase

Several factors have contributed to the rising cost of onions:
- Macroeconomic instability: Elevated inflation rates and currency fluctuations.
- Supply and demand disequilibrium: Reduced onion production and increased demand.
- Elevated transportation costs.
- Governance deficits: Poor governance, corruption, and lack of accountability.

Consequences of the High Cost of Living

The cost-of-living crisis has far-reaching implications:
- Societal crisis: Erodes trust in governance and widens inequality.
- Abject poverty: Many struggle to afford basic necessities like food.

This analysis underscores the economic disparities between Atiku's era and the current administration. As prices continue to soar, Nigerians grapple with the consequences of economic policies. A new Nigeria is needed and is possible where the welfare of the common man is paramount, and economic policies are designed to benefit the many, not just the few.

Nigerian Youths For Atiku